The Role of Uncertainty for Product Announcement Strategies: The Case of Autonomous Vehicles

We study how uncertainty concerning the performance and safety of autonomous vehicles (AV) influences the success of two prototypical strategies governing the producers' timing of the release of new models. Producers can announce the date of the next market introduction or commit to a minimum quality level. Consumers might opt to purchase a new AV, delay the purchasing decision, or resort to purchasing a conventional vehicle. Relying on a calibrated agent-based simulation model, we (i) investigate the competitive advantage of the two strategies and (ii) analyze the impact of consumer attitudes toward uncertainty on the market diffusion of AVs.